India's crude oil imports from Russia reached a record high of approximately 2.73 million barrels per day (mbpd) in June, driven by discounts of $2-5 a barrel. This surge comes as the West Asia crisis disrupted supplies from traditional sources and China reduced its own purchases, leading Russia to offer more favourable terms to India.
China sailed through the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz relatively unscathed even as the impact of its steps shielded other consuming nations from having to pay high crude oil prices.
'India should not trade away its energy security for temporary tariff relief. Neither signing a trade agreement nor stopping Russian oil purchases can protect it from future US action.'
China has strongly rejected a US bill that would impose tariffs on countries, including India, for purchasing Russian oil and gas. Beijing views the "Lindsey O Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act 2026" as an act of "long-arm jurisdiction" and interference in its sovereign trade relations, asserting that its economic cooperation with other nations is based on equality and mutual benefit.
The White House has claimed that India has begun 'scaling back' its oil purchases from Russia at the 'request' of President Donald Trump.
'In the current environment, India is effectively paying a premium for supply security and diversification.'
US President Donald Trump has issued a waiver from sanctions under the Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, citing national interest. This move comes after a deal with Russia for diesel supply and ahead of a US official's visit to India, where concerns about the act's impact on India's oil imports were raised.
The US House of Representatives is debating a bill that would authorise the President to impose sanctions on Russia and steep tariffs on its oil and gas trading partners, including India and China. The bill, aimed at pressuring Russia over the Ukraine war, has faced opposition but is expected to be put to a vote.
Gwadar is viewed as a critical pearl in China's maritime strategy as it would give a permanent logistical footprint near an important choke point - the Strait of Hormuz and the oil rich Persian Gulf, explains Commodore Venugopal Menon (retd).
Indian stock market investors are closely monitoring crude oil prices, geopolitical developments in West Asia, and the implications of the US Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, which could impose tariffs on countries, including India, that purchase Russian crude.
The Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) is undergoing a significant modernization drive, establishing drone platoons, developing a new 'Strike' course for Galwan-like situations, and constructing underground infrastructure along the Line of Actual Control. This strategic shift, announced by DG Shatrujeet Singh Kapoor, aims to counter China, identified as India's 'biggest adversary,' by embracing modern warfare techniques learned from recent global conflicts.
Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline shutdown could make crude costlier for India as refiners face fewer supply routes and rising freight and insurance costs.
The bill, introduced on Thursday, was conceived by Democrat Senator Richard Blumenthal and late Republican Senator Lindsey Graham and has the support of over 60 lawmakers.
The US House of Representatives has passed the Lindsey O Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, authorising President Trump to impose sanctions on Russia's energy sector and tariffs on countries like India and China that purchase Russian oil and gas. The legislation aims to curb Russia's ability to evade existing sanctions and reduce global dependence on its energy exports, despite some Democratic opposition to increased tariff authority for the President.
India's trade deficit reached a six-month high of $31.98 billion in July, driven by a sharp increase in imports, particularly crude oil, electronic goods, coal, and fertilisers. Both merchandise exports and imports recorded their second-highest levels during the same period.
'If crude remains above $100 per barrel, with restricted retail-price increases, OMCs could face negative petrol and diesel marketing margins, higher LPG under-recoveries, higher crude-landing, freight and insurance costs, working capital and debt accumulation and inventory losses if crude subsequently corrects sharply.'
India bought 1.87 million barrels of Russian oil per day in May so far, meeting approximately 40 per cent of its oil imports.
Indian refiners are likely to import 2-2.2 million barrels per day of Russian crude oil in June - the highest in the last two years and more than the total volumes bought from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait, preliminary data by global trade analytics firm Kpler showed.
Navigating this geopolitical minefield requires a cold-blooded blend of immediate tactical pleading, structural domestic diversification, and aggressive collective resistance, suggests Ambassador Rajasekhar.
'If you listen to a rowdy in a class, he will keep on bullying you.' 'India can say do whatever you want. We will not compromise on anything.'
The US announced a 60-day pause on sanctions against Russia and tariffs on other countries, including India, to analyse the global economic impact. This decision, made via an executive order by Trump, has drawn significant criticism from both Republicans and Democrats, who had previously passed the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act. US officials stated the waiver allows for assessment of global energy pressures and European allies' refusal to impose secondary sanctions on Russian oil buyers.
Trump has enacted a new law imposing significant sanctions on Russia and Iran, which could lead to tariffs of up to 100% on major energy importers like India and China.
Russian shipments averaged 1.67 million barrels per day in January compared to 1.48 million bpd in December and 1.53 million bpd a year earlier.
'If the temperature remains very high, which is likely to be the case because of El Nino, it may lead to a shortfall in wheat production.' 'If that happens, we will be in a very, very difficult situation as far as food security is concerned.'
India has refuted claims of payment issues hindering crude oil imports from Iran, clarifying that refiners have the flexibility to source oil from various global suppliers. The Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas addressed reports of a tanker rerouting to China, emphasising standard industry practices and secured oil requirements.
A US-sanctioned tanker carrying Iranian crude oil has rerouted mid-voyage from its previously indicated destination of India to China, raising questions about payment issues and the future of India's Iranian oil imports.
Chinese President Xi Jinping is set to visit the United States from September 23 to 25 for summit talks with US President Donald Trump, with discussions expected to cover critical economic and trade issues, including AI, and the recently signed US sanctions law targeting countries buying Russian oil and gas.
Top US and Chinese officials, including Vice Premier He Lifeng and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, held "candid, in-depth and constructive" talks in New York on economic and trade issues, with a specific focus on artificial intelligence. These discussions precede Chinese President Xi Jinping's anticipated visit to Washington and occur amidst new US sanctions targeting countries purchasing Russian oil and gas, and the US unveiling an "AI Force."
India's merchandise exports increased by 19.63 per cent to USD 44.24 billion in July, primarily driven by petroleum products, while a significant rise in imports pushed the trade deficit to a six-month high of USD 31.98 billion.
Despite decades of efforts towards energy transition, oil will remain the critical energy source for all nations for some decades. We can hope for peace opening the Strait of Hormuz, but must prepare for war closing it, points out former foreign secretary Ranjan Mathai.
Former President Donald Trump's recent deal with Russia to supply diesel to the US and global markets has ignited a political firestorm, drawing sharp criticism from Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Democratic leaders, and a segment of Republicans, despite the US Treasury lifting sanctions on Russian diesel supplies.
President Trump claims American tariffs imposed on India for purchasing Russian oil have negatively impacted Russia's economy, referring to India as Russia's major oil buyer. He also mentioned plans to meet with Putin and Zelenskyy, and claimed to have solved several wars, including the conflict between India and Pakistan.
Indian imports of Russian crude oil may stabilise or even decline in 2024 from record 2023 levels amid shrinking discounts, lower output, and a rebound in West Asian supplies, according to the ship-tracking data and industry executives. This may impact the billions of dollars in annual savings that India made last year. Imports of Russian oil jumped by a record 140 per cent in calendar 2023 to 1.79 million barrels a day (b/d) from 740,400 b/d in 2022, when Russia marched into Ukraine in February, and from just 102,000 b/d in 2021, according to the data from Paris-based market intelligence agency Kpler.
US lawmakers are racing to amend the Russia sanctions bill before recess. One amendment specifically names India, China, and other countries as potential targets for 100% tariffs due to their oil trade with Russia. Another significant amendment proposes to scrap the tariff section entirely, while others address presidential waiver powers and aid to Ukraine.
Indian-American Congressman Raja Krishnamoorthi voted in favour of a Russia sanctions act in the US House, diverging from his Democratic party and other Indian-American lawmakers. The bill, which passed, imposes tariffs on Russian oil and gas buyers, potentially impacting India and China, and exempts US uranium purchases from Russia.
Indian refiners have access to only limited Iranian volumes compared with Russian oil, and even the barrels on offer come with 'too many hassles'.
'All these reports and announcements by the US seem like attempts to gain a lever in trade deal negotiations with India.'
India has gained the least since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and was penalised the most, while the US, China and the European Union emerged as the biggest beneficiaries from the war.
The US Senate has overwhelmingly approved a bill, the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, which aims to punish Russia and its major petroleum product buyers, including China and India. The legislation allows the US President to impose 100 per cent tariffs on goods from the top five importers of Russian oil and gas, and also extends sanctions on Iran's energy sector. The bill, championed by the late Senator Lindsey Graham, now moves to the House of Representatives for further approval.
Indian benchmark stock indices, Sensex and Nifty, rebounded on Friday, driven by value buying in banking, oil & gas, and auto shares following recent sharp losses. The Sensex climbed 315.20 points to settle at 73,895.74, while the Nifty rose 77.40 points to 23,140.50.
